分析

比特币价格在105,000至125,000美元区间震荡，突破可能推动至141,000美元。短期持有者成本基础105,400美元是关键支撑位，125,100美元为阻力位。周末市场成功消化了96亿美元的比特币大额转账，现货价格短暂跌至115,000美元后稳定在118,000美元附近。长期持有者实现利润创纪录达25亿美元，97%的比特币供应仍处于盈利状态。市场需突破125,000美元才能确认上行趋势。

BlackRock指出稳定币已成为”金融未来”核心，GENIUS法案确立其支付工具地位而非投资品。当前市场规模达2500亿美元，占加密市场7%。新法规将发行权限定给受监管机构，禁止支付利息，要求储备资产主要为短期国债。报告认为该框架能强化美元地位，但全球竞争中需警惕香港等地政策变化。尽管稳定币持有1200亿美债，对收益率影响有限。比特币仍被视为独立资产类别。

渣打银行报告指出，上市公司持有的以太坊(ETH)正形成独立资产类别，区别于ETF等传统投资工具。这些企业通过质押收益、DeFi整合及股权市场溢价策略实现结构性优势，其中BitMine Immersion Technologies持有0.5%流通供应量。报告预测若趋势延续，企业持有的ETH占比或达10%，凸显以太坊可编程性和收益机制正重塑企业资金配置策略。

美国《GENIUS法案》签署前夕，全球稳定币搜索量创历史新高，华盛顿特区及周边城市关注度最高。法案通过后四周内，”稳定币”搜索指数上涨16%，明显高于欧盟MiCA法规实施后的数据波动。尽管USDT以6.9:1的搜索优势持续领先USDC，但区域偏好呈现东西分化：USDC在欧美发达城市占优，USDT则主导新兴市场。新法案为美国稳定币设立储备金、信息披露等监管框架，标志着稳定币正加速融入主流金融体系。

以太坊现货ETF本月流入资金接近100亿美元大关，截至7月25日累计达93亿美元，较月初增长120%。贝莱德ETHA以93.4亿美元流入领跑，占7月总流入量的91%，成为近30天流入量第四大ETF。分析师指出，机构投资者对以太坊在代币化、稳定币等领域的应用前景充满信心，推动资金持续流入。ETHA日交易量达13.5亿美元，反映出以太坊正成为机构投资组合中的重要战略资产。

比特币从114,800美元低点反弹至119,580美元，但衍生品数据显示市场杠杆率持续攀升，系统性风险加剧。7月23-25日期间全网爆仓达14.6亿美元，山寨币爆仓比例创历史新高。以太坊未平仓合约占比升至26%，反映出市场资金正加速转向山寨币。分析师警告当前高杠杆环境可能引发剧烈波动，建议交易者密切关注114,800美元关键支撑位，警惕流动性薄弱的山寨币市场风险。截至7月28日，比特币报118,000美元，市值2.35万亿美元，主导率60.43%。

美欧关税谈判进入关键阶段，8月1日最后期限前可能达成15%基准关税协议，汽车、钢铁等高敏感行业或获豁免。特朗普称达成概率仅50%，市场波动加剧。若谈判破裂，比特币或因地缘风险溢价受益；若达成协议，传统市场将获喘息，加密资产短期可能承压。 Investors hold their breath for a U.S.–Europe tariff deal The U.S. and EU are reportedly closing in on a deal that would set a broad, baseline 15% tariff on European goods entering the United States, with potential exemptions for select sectors. This follows President Trump’s prior threats to raise tariffs as high as 50% on certain imports if no agreement is reached, a move that’s kept European exporters and global investors on edge. Some of the most contentious areas remain automobiles and parts, as well as steel and aluminum, and sensitive, high-value sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. EU officials have insisted that any agreement must deliver immediate relief on tariffs for these critical industries, rather than deferring it until the final deal is ratified. Trump told reporters on July 25: “I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU.” From his statement, it’s clear that the U.S.–Europe tariff is far from a done deal, and uncertainty still hangs over the negotiations. European diplomats have signaled that while a broad framework may be agreed upon soon, a number of outcomes remain possible, including a successful deal, a temporary reprieve, or an all-out tariff escalation on August 1. Market impacts: volatility, risk, and crypto Investors have reacted to the prospect of a deal with cautious optimism, hoping that even a partial agreement can reduce trade uncertainty that has weighed on European equity markets and global supply chains since Trump’s initial tariff announcements in April. U.S. stocks have hovered near record highs as traders price in a higher likelihood of a U.S.–Europe tariff relief, though volatility is expected to tick up as the deadline approaches. Trade tensions and tariff threats typically fuel concerns about economic slowdowns, stagflation, and disruptions to both the dollar and euro, increasing volatility across markets. Crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, often benefit in such climates as global investors look for alternatives that are independent of any single government’s policy. Previous escalations in U.S.–China and U.S.–EU trade spats have prompted spikes in BTC trading volumes and strengthened the narrative of Bitcoin as a mature asset and a “hedge” against geopolitical and monetary uncertainty. However, as noted by Koinly: “If confidence in national currencies or markets drops, people might move into crypto to preserve their wealth. However, this behavior is not consistent and depends heavily on sentiment.” Should tariff escalation continue or uncertainty persist, we might expect some renewed momentum for Bitcoin and crypto as safe-haven assets and stores of value, similar to gold. Conversely, a last-minute trade deal could restore some calm to traditional markets, potentially dampening the crisis premium that sometimes serves to boost crypto and even seeing a potential short-term slump.

比特币24小时内暴跌近3%至115,376美元，创两周新低。数据显示，Galaxy Digital等大额持有者近期转移约3万枚BTC至交易所套现，引发市场对进一步抛售的担忧。分析师指出，这是市场过热后的正常回调，预计比特币可能下探11万美元支撑位。与此同时，主流山寨币普遍跟跌，唯以太坊逆势上涨2%。专家认为当前仍属盘整阶段，待不确定性消除后或迎来新一轮积累。

Galaxy Digital近期将超17,000枚BTC（价值17亿美元）转入币安等交易所，引发市场关注。此前该公司从2011年休眠钱包整合了80,000枚BTC，持仓价值从8.5亿美元飙升至60亿美元。链上数据显示，这些转账多为分批进入交易所热钱包，疑似机构减持行为。分析师警告，当前薄弱的订单簿可能加剧抛售压力。截至更新，已有约70,000枚BTC（价值80亿美元）被抛售，仅剩10,000枚未转移。比特币价格24小时内下跌2.5%，交易量达940亿美元，显示市场正应对卖压。

MEXC研究显示，67%的Z世代加密交易者（18-27岁）过去90天使用AI工具辅助决策，其恐慌性抛售行为比手动交易者减少47%。该群体平均每月使用AI工具11.4天，73%会在市场波动时启用自动化策略，但在横盘期关闭。数据表明Z世代将AI视为主要决策依据，查看AI信号的频率是传统指标的2.4倍。相比千禧世代偏好人工操作，Z世代更倾向根据市场压力灵活切换自动化模式，使用AI工具设置止损/止盈规则的概率高出2.4倍。平台预测到2028年，超80%的Z世代交易者将依赖AI完成全周期资产管理。