宏观

比特币与黄金ETF本月罕见同步资金外流，打破传统避险资产与风险资产的对冲规律。这一反常现象源于宏观经济不确定性加剧，投资者在美联储政策不明朗下转向现金或高收益替代品，导致两大资产同受压力。市场正等待货币政策信号以重拾方向。

美国商务部启动试点项目，将官方经济统计数据直接发布至比特币、以太坊等公链，首批包括2025年GDP数据（年化增长3.3%），以提升透明度和安全性。数据通过Chainlink和Pyth等预言机分发，未来或扩展至更多链和应用。

比特币在11万美元附近盘整，资金流向以太坊及山寨币。美联储鸽派言论引发加密市场反弹，以太坊创历史新高4958美元。机构资金转向以太坊，企业资金加速积累，链上资金超100亿美元。尽管比特币ETF出现净流出，但全球流动性仍支撑数字资产长期看涨。

比特币媒体TFTC发布视频，纪念美元脱离金本位，称其为“代价最惨重的错误”，导致社会衰退、物价飞涨、家庭债务及文化瓦解。视频通过祖孙对话强调金本位约束政府开支、维持货币诚信的作用，而法币体系助长无节制印钞与债务危机。比特币因固定供应量、去中心化特性，被视作新一代“健全货币”，为修复经济与社会提供新希望。

Digital Asset与多家金融机构在Canton Network完成首笔全链上美国国债回购交易，使用USDC作为现金端，代币化国债作为抵押品。该交易通过Tradeweb执行，实现现金与抵押品在同一许可型公链上的原子级结算，突破传统银行时间限制。参与方包括美国银行、花旗等机构，展示高质量流动资产在统一市场基础设施中的可编程结算潜力。Canton Network旨在连接传统金融与链上结算，实现全天候市场运营。

美国7月CPI数据显示，整体通胀月率放缓至0.2%（前值0.3%），年率持平2.7%；核心通胀年率升至3.1%，月率0.3%。数据发布后，比特币上涨0.5%至11.9万美元，以太坊飙升超5%突破4400美元。市场反应显示：整体通胀放缓提振风险偏好，而核心指标高企仍令政策承压。加密货币在流动性集中的数据窗口期呈现典型波动，主流币种率先获得资金流入。

美国总统特朗普8月7日签署行政令，允许401(k)退休计划纳入加密货币投资。该指令要求劳工部、SEC和财政部重新评估现行限制，为比特币和以太坊通过集合投资工具进入退休计划铺路。美国DC计划资产规模达12.2万亿美元，即便0.1%的默认配置比例理论上也可带来122亿美元资金流入。关键取决于计划发起人设定的默认配置比例及采用计划的规模。新政策消除了劳工部2022年警告带来的监管不确定性，但风险控制和费用问题仍是争议焦点。若通过现货ETF配置，退休金流入将直接转化为加密货币的初级市场需求。

美国特朗普政府8月7日正式实施100%半导体进口关税，重创加密货币矿工经济。新关税政策针对非美国产芯片，使矿工在减半和网络难度飙升的压力下成本激增。尽管政策允许承诺本土制造的企业豁免，但比特币矿机主要依赖亚洲产ASIC芯片，矿工短期内难寻替代方案。关税导致矿机采购成本平均上涨21%，加之算力收益同比下滑55%，上市矿企股价普遍下跌。行业报告显示硬件成本占初始投入60%-70%，持续涨价可能迫使美国算力向加拿大、挪威等免税地区转移。

美欧关税谈判进入关键阶段，8月1日最后期限前可能达成15%基准关税协议，汽车、钢铁等高敏感行业或获豁免。特朗普称达成概率仅50%，市场波动加剧。若谈判破裂，比特币或因地缘风险溢价受益；若达成协议，传统市场将获喘息，加密资产短期可能承压。 Investors hold their breath for a U.S.–Europe tariff deal The U.S. and EU are reportedly closing in on a deal that would set a broad, baseline 15% tariff on European goods entering the United States, with potential exemptions for select sectors. This follows President Trump’s prior threats to raise tariffs as high as 50% on certain imports if no agreement is reached, a move that’s kept European exporters and global investors on edge. Some of the most contentious areas remain automobiles and parts, as well as steel and aluminum, and sensitive, high-value sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. EU officials have insisted that any agreement must deliver immediate relief on tariffs for these critical industries, rather than deferring it until the final deal is ratified. Trump told reporters on July 25: “I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU.” From his statement, it’s clear that the U.S.–Europe tariff is far from a done deal, and uncertainty still hangs over the negotiations. European diplomats have signaled that while a broad framework may be agreed upon soon, a number of outcomes remain possible, including a successful deal, a temporary reprieve, or an all-out tariff escalation on August 1. Market impacts: volatility, risk, and crypto Investors have reacted to the prospect of a deal with cautious optimism, hoping that even a partial agreement can reduce trade uncertainty that has weighed on European equity markets and global supply chains since Trump’s initial tariff announcements in April. U.S. stocks have hovered near record highs as traders price in a higher likelihood of a U.S.–Europe tariff relief, though volatility is expected to tick up as the deadline approaches. Trade tensions and tariff threats typically fuel concerns about economic slowdowns, stagflation, and disruptions to both the dollar and euro, increasing volatility across markets. Crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, often benefit in such climates as global investors look for alternatives that are independent of any single government’s policy. Previous escalations in U.S.–China and U.S.–EU trade spats have prompted spikes in BTC trading volumes and strengthened the narrative of Bitcoin as a mature asset and a “hedge” against geopolitical and monetary uncertainty. However, as noted by Koinly: “If confidence in national currencies or markets drops, people might move into crypto to preserve their wealth. However, this behavior is not consistent and depends heavily on sentiment.” Should tariff escalation continue or uncertainty persist, we might expect some renewed momentum for Bitcoin and crypto as safe-haven assets and stores of value, similar to gold. Conversely, a last-minute trade deal could restore some calm to traditional markets, potentially dampening the crisis premium that sometimes serves to boost crypto and even seeing a potential short-term slump.

Polygon预测市场Polymarket数据显示，96.3%的押注认为美联储7月会议将维持利率不变，仅3%押注降息25基点。当前特朗普与鲍威尔公开分歧加剧，特朗普主张大幅降息，而鲍威尔强调政策需依赖数据。市场对鲍威尔7月底前离职的预期概率仅1%，年底前离职概率升至17%。预测市场与美联储”按兵不动”的主流指引基本一致。